Post–election expectations of influentials 2013

Conducted in: 2013

• This pre-election survey maps the opinions of readers of the prestigious Internet bulletin FS Final Word. It is a follow-up to a similar survey conducted prior to the May 2010 parliamentary elections. Given the minimal change in the Final Word’s readership, we are able to provide some interesting comparisons in terms of such things as the views of readers on political parties’ impact on the Czech economy and the business community's support of political parties. The Final Word is published in English by the Fleet Sheet (E.S. Best s.r.o.).
  
  This survey differs from other polls in the professional composition of its sample of respondents, and it should not be taken as the opinion of the overall Czech population. Top and mid-level managers, entrepreneurs and independent consultants comprise 73.5% of all respondents. Such sectors as finance, media and communication services are represented at a higher rate than their proportion in society. Most respondents wield medium and higher levels of decision-making authority and are significantly influential in the formation of opinions among their peers. 80.2% of the respondents are older than 35.
  
  

The survey was conducted between September 19 and October 4, 2013, by means of DBM's electronic polling system, based on the SurveyMonkey platform. The invitation to join the survey was delivered by e-mail to 6,342 registered Final Word readers. The invitation was also promoted by Erik Best through his Twitter and Facebook accounts as well as in the Final Word bulletin itself. A total of 1,442 respondents took part in the survey, of whom 1,154 were addressed by e-mail (an 18% response rate). Another 288 responses derived from the aforementioned social networks. The respondents were able to complete the survey in either English or Czech.

Main findings

• The political orientation of the sample group as a whole is clearly to the right. The sample group as a whole has almost nothing positive to say about those on the left, including the president. Compared with 2010, ODS lost its leading position in the opinion of the sample group. The survey results show that its place was taken by TOP 09 and partially also by ANO 2011.

• An unstable left-of-center government will emerge, which will not improve the business environment 

• The businesspeople who responded to the survey expect election results that are contrary to their own preferences. According to 89.5% of respondents, the left should win, either by a broad margin or at least a narrow one. Of the respondents, 77.2% do not expect the next government to improve the business environment. Businesspeople are rather pessimistic about the stability of the next government, with 59.9% believing it will not serve out the full election term.

• ODS has lost its lead. TOP 09 has captured the business vote

• If only businesspeople voted in the October elections, TOP 09 would win (with 55.3%), followed by ANO 2011 (20.1%) and ODS (18.0%). ODS has lost its top position. In our 2010 survey, respondents expected ODS to get 61.5% of the votes of businesspeople, followed by TOP 09 with 35.2%.

• Zeman is bad news

• A clear majority of businesspeople are very critical of the role of President Miloš Zeman and his impact on Czech politics. Of respondents, 57.8% see his role as clearly negative and 21.2% as rather negative. 

• Svobodní (The Free Citizens) are the real right. The Zemanites are similar to the Communists 

• Businesspeople believe the Free Citizens are the only truly right-wing party. ODS and TOP 09 are more often seen as being center-right. SPOZ is seen as being close to the Communist Party. 

• ANO 2011 scores high in the election campaign 

• The respondents believe ANO 2011 has the most effective election campaign (41.9%), with SPOZ (15.7%) and ČSSD (11.3%) lagging far behind. 

• TOP 09 for the Czech economy 
  

• The respondents believe that parties whose programs are the most responsive to the needs of the Czech economy are TOP 09 (29.7%), ANO 2011 (15.6%), the Free Citizens (11.3%) and ODS (11.1%). 

• Priorities for the new government 

• The three main priorities for the next government, according to the respondents, are combating corruption (54.0%), economic policy (49.0%) and public finances (43.2%). 

• No clear stars in the prime ministerial sky 

• The respondents do not see a bright prime ministerial star on the horizon. The most favored candidates for the post are Miroslava Němcová (9.4%), Miroslav Kalousek (9.2%), Bohuslav Sobotka (7.2%), Karel Schwarzenberg (6.9%), Andrej Babiš (5.3%) and Petr Mach (4.8%). However, only Sobotka is seen as being in a position to become the head of the expected left-of-center Cabinet.
  

Kontakt: Tomaáš Jelínek