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CFA/OVB Forecasting Dinner Survey 2011

Conducted in: 2011

The survey was performed to mark the occasion of the 2011 Forecasting Dinner. It is a prestigious annual gathering of members and candidates of the Czech CFA Society, an association of chartered financial analysts, as well as leading domestic and foreign economists for the purpose of forecasting economic trends in the coming year. This year’s ninth annual Forecasting Dinner is being held under the patronage of the Governor of the Czech National Bank, Miroslav Singer.

The survey was conducted on behalf of the Czech CFA Society and its general partner, the financial advisory company OVB Allfinanz, by Donath Business & Media in co-operation with Factum Invenio between 19 and 31 January 2011.

The aim of the survey was to map the opinions of economic and financial experts on key issues of the Czech and European economies. Another aim was to compare them with the opinions of legislators on the same matters.

The following people received an invitation to participate in the research:

  • Members and candidates of the Czech CFA Society;
  • Leading professionals of OVB Allfinanz;
  • Deputies and senators at the Parliament of the Czech Republic;
  • Leading figures in the Czech business and financial sector;
  • Readers of the Fleet Sheet’s Final Word news bulletin.

The questions concerned:

  • Reform of the pension system;
  • The future of the euro;
  • Expected trends in key parameters of the Czech economy this year.

A total of 1,838 of the 8,033 people approached responded.

Main Findings

The respondents regard as the most suitable a government pension system that, in addition to the existence of the pay-as-you-go state pillar, motivates people to voluntarily save in a private pillar.

There is no clear agreement on which pension-reform option respondents realistically expect to be approved. Most frequently the respondents think that it will either be unreduced contributions to the public pillar with voluntary contributions into the private pillar and government support, or reduced payments to the public pillar and mandatory payments to a private pillar. The respondents agree that today’s thirtysomethings should save for their old age both with the help of supplementary pension insurance and life insurance, and also by investing in real estate and human capital (education, professional qualifications, etc.).

The eurozone will survive, the vast majority of respondents believe. Shifts in membership of the eurozone are expected most frequently: either its expansion and/or the departure of the weakest economies.

The vast majority of respondents think that in the next three years the Czech government will not set a date for euro adoption. At the same time, a number of respondents think that the government will present reforms as steps to meet the Maastrict criteria. An opt-out from the adoption of the euro, proposed by President Klaus, is a not very probable option in the respondents’ opinion.

Most respondents are also of the opinion that the Czech Republic should adopt the euro, however most favour this only around 2020 or later. Only a minority believe that it should be as soon as possible. Respondents who reject the euro completely are in a marked minority. On average the respondents expect that the Czech economy will grow by 2.2%. The respondents who are the biggest optimists are from the Czech CFA Society and OVB Allfinanz, and on average they forecast GDP growth of 2.4%; on the contrary, the most pessimistic were deputies and senators, who only estimated 2.0% growth.

Respondents on average expect that the euro will be will be worth CZK 24.20 at the end of 2011. As far as the euro/dollar exchange rate is concerned, the largest number of respondents think that the euro will remain at the same level against the dollar until the end of the year or that it will weaken somewhat.

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Kontakt: Petr Kutílek

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